UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Raoni Barcelos OVER 1.5 TDs (+150)

Payton Talbott OVER 54.5 SS (-115)

Barcelos vs. Talbott - Fight to Start Round 3 (-105)

Once a top-10 UFC contender, Raoni Barcelos is nearing the tail end of his career, while his opponent, Payton Talbott, is a rising contender with a fan-friendly style. In recent fights, Talbott has looked like a world-beater; however, this matchup against Barcelos is a significant step up in competition.

Barcelos is a national wrestling champion in Brazil, a BJJ black belt, has decent boxing, and relatively good defense. On the other side, Talbott has run through his opponents, finishing 8 of 9 fights. He is very offensively sound and breaks his opponents with volume and pressure.

There are several props I like for this matchup:

1. Raoni Barcelos OVER 1.5 TDs (+150): Barcelos is a credentialed wrestler and grappler. He has taken down 8 of 11 opponents and averages almost 6 takedown attempts per fight. Talbott has been taken down in the past by fighters who don’t have the same skill set as Barcelos. At +150, there’s great value for Barcelos to land 2 takedowns.

2. Payton Talbott OVER 54.5 SS (-115): Talbott’s style is designed to break his opponents, particularly in the later rounds when they’re fatigued. He has a high-output offense, landing more than 8 significant strikes per minute, which often causes his opponents to crumble under pressure. While there’s a narrative that Barcelos has a questionable chin, Talbott’s low-damage, high-output style may not fully exploit this. If the fight goes the distance, I can see Talbott easily surpassing 54.5 significant strikes.

3. Barcelos vs. Talbott: Fight Starts Round 3 (-105): Barcelos may have shown vulnerability to being dropped—he’s been knocked down by Kyler Phillips and Umar Nurmagomedov. However, there’s no shame in that, as both are known for quick finishes. Talbott seems like a fast finisher, but this perception may stem from recency bias. If you examine his pro and amateur records, he has only one first-round finish. Barcelos is skilled and defensively sound enough to avoid hard shots and survive at least two rounds.

The two X-factors in this fight are Talbott’s ability to defend takedowns (or get up quickly) and Barcelos’ capacity to absorb damage. This will be Talbott’s toughest test to date. Despite being the biggest favorite on the card, this fight feels much closer than the betting lines suggest. Ultimately, I look forward to watching this intriguing matchup unfold.

Jamahal Hill OVER 50.5 SS (-115)Jiri Prochazka OVER 44.5 SS (-115)

This is a matchup I’ve been anticipating for a while. Jiri Prochazka faces Jamahal Hill in a clash between a brawler and a technical striker.

Jiri’s fan-favorite style of constantly moving forward, absorbing shots to set up a knockout, makes him exciting to watch. On the flip side, Jamahal Hill is a more technical boxer with high output, who focuses on being defensively sound.

There are two props I like for this fight: Jamahal Hill OVER 50.5 SS or Jiri Prochazka OVER 44.5 SS. Both fighters throw high volume, have sub-50% striking defense rates, and rarely attempt wrestling. Betting on these props assumes both fighters can survive long enough before someone gets finished, as this fight likely won’t go to a decision.

My preferred play is Jamahal Hill. He tends to adapt to his opponents more quickly than Jiri and could land 25+ significant strikes in Round 1. However, you can’t go wrong with either side.

Additional Bets

• Payton Talbott 95+ SS (+600)

• Merab Dvalishvili Win by DEC (+300)

• Merab Dvalishvili OVER 2.5 TDs (-185)

• Islam Makhachev OVER 2.5 TDs (+100)