NASCAR Cup Series Phoenix Championship DFS Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series season comes to a close this weekend at Phoenix Raceway, where four drivers - Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, and William Byron will fight for the 2025 championship in a 312-lap showdown in the desert. Phoenix is a one-mile, flat track that requires precision on restarts and pit road — and those factors usually play a major role in who comes out on top. With over 300 laps, dominator points are very much in play, and targeting the right lap leaders will be key in DFS this week. Historically, the Championship 4 have dominated this race, running up front and often finishing in the top 5, so you'll want to start builds with at least one (if not two) title contenders. Still, place differential and value plays can make the difference in larger tournaments. We also saw some tire issues in practice so that could be a concern for the race this weekend.

Potential Dominators

Denny Hamlin

Kyle Larson

William Byron

Ryan Blaney

Denny Hamlin is going to be the main favorite coming into the weekend as he has been the most consistently fast driver of the championship 4 and should be good here at Phoenix. He had to work on the car in practice but it seemed they got it a lot better and was pretty fast at the end of practice and then went out and got the pole. He should lead early and be a top lap leader this week. Starting next to Hamlin is Byron who was one of the best cars in lap averages in practice with his teammate Larson. Byron has had a lot of speed at times this season and will be a serious threat to win the championship this season. Larson is the other big threat to win the championship and he starts right with Hamlin and Byron in 3rd. He should be good all race and is a good option for DFS. Blaney is the top driver outside of the championship 4 going into the race this weekend as he was really fast in practice. Penske is going to try to win the race and Blaney looks like the driver that will have the best chance to get it done and starts in 5th.

Place Differential Plays

Christopher Bell

Tyler Reddick

Bubba Wallace

Ryan Preece

Bell has always been a top driver at Phoenix and I would expect him to move forward quickly from his 20th starting spot. He was around the top 5 in lap averages in practice and I would expect him to be really good on the long run which will help him move forward and gain fast laps as well. Reddick was another that had really good speed in practice and I would expect to move forward in the race. He starts in 24th so he has a lot of place differential potential and he should be able to run in the top 10. His teammate Bubba Wallace starts outside the top 20 as well and should be able to gain spots and be a good value play this week. Also in the 7k value range I think Ryan Preece could have a really good race with top 10 potential. He is good on the flat style ovals and has been the best RFK car at the end of the season. He had top 15 speed in practice and could run there throughout the race.

Cheap Options

Ty Gibbs

Zane Smith

Michael McDowell

John Hunter Nemechek

Ty Gibbs was good on the long run in practice and could have top 10 potential for the race. He starts back in 25th so he has a lot of room to move for way and could be a good option this week. Zane Smith has been really good on the short flat ovals this season and he finished top 10 here in the spring. He didn’t show much in practice but he is a GPP play as he is likely to be low owned starting 22nd and could still gain spots and be a good value this week. McDowell will be a popular option this week as he almost starts dead last and he had good speed in practice with top 15 lap averages. He should move forward and have potential for a top 20 if he can stay on the lead lap early. John Hunter Nemechek is a good flier play this week as he has had some good runs this season and has a good amount of place differential potential this week.

Austin Dillon is another good cheap option starting 26th as he is good on flat tracks as he won at the similar Richmond the last two seasons and should be able to move forward this week at Phoenix.

Thank you for following along this season and reading my picks all season long. Stay tuned for next season as I will have some new content coming up for next NASCAR season!