UFC Fight Night: Saudi Arabia

Michael "Venom" Page OVER 42.5 Significant Strikes (-115)

In a highly anticipated striker vs. striker matchup, the one-eyed pirate Shara Magomedov will face off against fan-favorite "can crusher" Michael "Venom" Page.

One of my favorite props for this bout is betting on MVP to land over 42.5 significant strikes. Both fighters prefer to keep the action on the feet, making this a likely stand-up battle. Magomedov's striking defense is a concerning 42%, a glaring weakness for someone eyeing a Middleweight title run. In fact, he has absorbed over 60 significant strikes in three of his four UFC bouts, all against fellow strikers. Additionally, his impaired vision from a blind right eye presents an obvious handicap in the fight.

Neither MVP nor Shara has shown a propensity for takedowns, reinforcing the expectation that this fight will remain a striking affair. Given these factors, I anticipate a high-volume striking match, with MVP surpassing his projected 42.5 significant strikes.

Damir Hadzovic OVER 11.5 Significant Strikes (-115)

I'm simply betting on the odds and numbers in this matchup. While Terrance McKinney has a history of finishing fights in under half a round, that pace is unsustainable. He also has a tendency to absorb significant strikes, and if he doesn’t secure an early finish, his gas tank quickly depletes, often leading to him getting finished himself. Since this fight starts on the feet, Hadzovic has a strong chance of landing at least 12 significant strikes before it's over.

Additional Bets

• Hamdy Abdelwahab ML (+102)

• Mayra Bueno Silva Win by SUB (+700)

• Michael Venom Page 70+ SS (+300)