UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland

Quillan Salklld OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes @ -115

Quillan Salkilld is set to make his UFC debut in his home country, facing Anshul Jubli, the winner of Road to UFC.

Both fighters are well-rounded, but their preferred approaches differ. Quillan, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, will likely look to take the fight to the ground, while Jubli, whose grappling credentials are known, has demonstrated strong takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet, favoring a striking battle.

My favorite prop for this fight is Quillan to land over 54.5 significant strikes. Both fighters have high-volume striking, and Jubli has shown a tendency to absorb damage, having taken 90+ significant strikes in two of his three UFC fights. Given Jubli's defensive lapses and his ability to stay on his feet, I expect the fight to remain standing long enough for Quillan to surpass this projection comfortably.

Jack Jenkins OVER 58.5 Significant Strikes @ -115

Gabriel Santos enters this matchup as a moderately big favorite, taking on Jack Jenkins, the hometown fighter, in an exciting prospect-versus-prospect showdown.

Both fighters bring dynamic styles to the octagon. Santos applies relentless pressure early, hunting for a finish either by knockout or submission. In contrast, Jenkins takes a more calculated approach, utilizing devastating leg kicks to wear down his opponents before capitalizing with his boxing.

The top prop for this fight is Jenkins to land over 58.5 significant strikes. Both fighters are high-volume strikers with strong takedown defense, favoring a knockout over a decision. Additionally, Jenkins boasts solid striking defense, whereas Santos has been outstruck in two of his three UFC fights. Expect an all-action fight with plenty of exchanges, making this prop a strong play.

Tatiana Suarez ML @ -118

Tatiana Suarez is finally getting her shot at UFC gold, entering as the favorite against the widely regarded Women's Strawweight GOAT, Zhang Weili, in one of the most highly anticipated women's fights in recent memory.

This matchup is a classic striker vs. wrestler clash. Weili is an elite athlete—strong, physical, and well-rounded, with crisp striking that has led to knockouts over legends like Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jędrzejczyk. On the other hand, Tatiana Suarez, often compared to a female Khabib, has dominated opponents with her relentless grappling, despite an unfortunate stretch of injuries that delayed her rise.

While my heart leans toward Weili, my head tells me Suarez is the pick—especially at these odds, which may be the best value we'll see on her for a long time. Weili has very few weaknesses, but one notable flaw is her ability to get back to her feet after being taken down. While she can initially power her way up, she tends to slow down in the later rounds, as seen in her fights against Rose Namajunas and Yan Xiaonan. Suarez, being a far superior and more technical wrestler than both, is likely to exploit this weakness as the fight progresses.

My pick: Tatiana Suarez. And new.

Other Bets

• Viacheslav Borchev Win by R1 KO/TKO (+300)

• Viacheslav Borchev Win by R2 KO/TKO (+600)

• Tom Nolan OVER 1 TD (+150)

• Jack Jenkins ML (+195)

• Tafa vs. Teixeira UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-210): Parlay Piece