UFC 307: Bets & Breakdowns

Kevin Holland Over 52.5 Significant Strikes (-115)

Kevin Holland, everyone's favorite MMA superhero, is set to face Roman Dolidze, the UFC’s often overlooked powerhouse, in what should be an exciting striking battle.

Holland is a tall, rangy fighter with a BJJ black belt under Travis Lutter. Known for his entertaining style, he prefers to keep fights on the feet, using sharp straight punches and kicks to control distance and eventually find the knockout. However, his biggest flaw is his takedown defense, which sits at just 54%. This vulnerability has cost him in the past, but Holland’s grappling pedigree occasionally comes into play, as he proved with a submission win from his back in his last fight.

On the other side, Roman Dolidze is also a BJJ black belt but is better known for his power punching. While he’s capable of taking the fight to the ground, Dolidze generally favors standing exchanges, looking to land heavy shots. His main issue is that he lacks speed and technical precision, which has led to struggles against rangy fighters like Nassourdine Imavov and Jack Hermansson.

The key factor in this fight will be whether Dolidze chooses to wrestle. If he does, Holland could have a tough time getting back to his feet, limiting his chances to land 53 or more significant strikes. It's worth noting that Holland hasn’t faced many strong wrestlers recently, aside from Khamzat Chimaev and Michael Chiesa. That said, I’m still leaning towards the over on 52.5 significant strikes. If the fight stays standing, Holland should easily surpass this number, as Dolidze tends to absorb more strikes than he lands. Both fighters have shown they can take damage, making this one of the more promising fight props of the night.

Tecia Pennington Under 45.5 Significant Strikes (-115) & Carla Esparza ML (+145)

Former UFC Strawweight champion Carla Esparza returns to action in an early prelim bout against Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres), aiming to prove she’s still one of the division’s top fighters.

Despite a championship win in what many consider one of the most lackluster title fights in UFC history, Esparza remains a highly skilled wrestler with excellent control. Her downfall has been a lack of striking prowess and the ability to entertain fans. Nonetheless, she’s one of the most dominant wrestlers in the division and uses that strength to neutralize her opponents.

Tecia Pennington, on the other hand, has “championship blood” by marriage, as her wife is current women’s Bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington. Tecia herself is a solid fighter, boasting superior technique and speed with a strong taekwondo background. However, her major flaw has been her inability to defend takedowns against highly skilled wrestlers.

Given Tecia's struggles with takedown defense, my favored pick is Pennington under 45.5 significant strikes and Carla Esparza to win. Esparza has successfully taken down 14 of her last 15 opponents (the lone exception being Tatiana Suarez) and has held 12 of those opponents to under 46 significant strikes. Her ability to smother her opponents and limit their output is well-documented, and Tecia's offense is primarily dependent on striking volume.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that Tecia has spent a large portion of her camp working on her takedown defense. If Esparza fails to impose her wrestling, Tecia's chances to win increase significantly. However, Tecia’s reliance on kicks and forward movement could leave her hesitant, given Esparza’s takedown threat. With Esparza’s consistent ability to control her opponents through wrestling, I’m confident in both of these bets.

Jose Aldo ML (+140)

Mario Bautista takes another step up in competition as he faces UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo in Salt Lake City, Utah.

After losing his short-notice debut to Cory Sandhagen, Bautista has worked his way up and now faces a true legend in Aldo. Bautista holds a black belt in BJJ, but he generally prefers to keep fights standing, mixing in occasional takedown attempts. He looks to keep his opponents at range with straight punches and will look for submissions if the fight hits the mat.

On the other side, Jose Aldo enters his second fight since retiring in 2022. During his retirement, Aldo stayed active in boxing, and he looked sharp in his return against Jonathan Martinez—an opponent with similarities to Bautista. Aldo’s biggest strengths remain his exceptional boxing and his defensive abilities, both in striking and takedown defense, which have been key to his long-standing success in MMA.

There are two important variables to consider in this matchup: Bautista’s level of competition, which has been notably weaker than Aldo's; and the fact that this fight is at elevation, which could affect Aldo, given his past issues with cardio.

Even with these factors in mind, my preferred pick is Jose Aldo at +140. While I won’t be betting heavily on Aldo, this matchup mirrors his previous fight against Jonathan Martinez, where Aldo was able to maintain a high striking pace while staying defensively sound. Bautista has found success, but mostly against fighters who haven’t cracked the top 15. This step up in competition may be too much, making Aldo the value play here.

Long Shot Quick Hits

Ihor Potieria Over 0.5 Takedowns (+250): Potieria is facing a high-level kickboxer with a known weakness in takedown defense. His easiest path to victory is to get the fight to the ground and control Almeida. Potieria has previously attempted takedowns in other fights, so I’m taking a small shot on this prop.

Ketlen Vieira Moneyline (+700): Kayla Harrison is renowned for her world-class judo, but judo tends to be more effective in women’s MMA due to the greater strength disparity compared to men. That said, Vieira has some of the best takedown defense in WMMA, and when she can keep the fight standing, she performs well. We’ve also seen Harrison tire out in the PFL, and with this fight taking place at elevation, every failed takedown attempt will drain her cardio, giving Vieira an edge.

Khalil Rountree Jr. to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+500): While Pereira is technically the superior fighter, we’ve said the same thing about Rountree before—like when he fought Gokhan Saki. Though Pereira is a different challenge, Rountree has proven his power. Pereira has also been badly knocked out by Adesanya and others in kickboxing. With 4oz gloves, Rountree has a real shot and nothing to lose. However, don’t bet too heavily on this one.