NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Las Vegas DFS

The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway Saturday night for the Focused Health 302, the fourth race of The Chase. The race will feature 201 laps around the 1.5-mile intermediate, with the stages ending on laps 45, 90 and 201. Las Vegas gives drivers multiple usable lanes as the track develops, but maintaining momentum through the long corners is the biggest key. A car that begins sliding the tires or losing rear grip can give up a lot of time over the course of a green-flag run.

The spring race earlier this season is a good example of how the dominator points can be spread among a handful of strong cars. Justin Allgaier led a race-high 48 laps, Kyle Larson led 47, Jesse Love led 36 and Corey Day led nine. Larson ultimately won, but there was not one driver who completely controlled the race from start to finish. Practice gave us a pretty useful picture of the long-run speed.

Jesse Love had the best 10-consecutive-lap average, followed by Sheldon Creed, Brandon Jones, Brent Crews and Corey Day. Love’s long-run performance is especially interesting because this is now the second Las Vegas weekend this season where he has topped the 10-lap averages. He had the best 10-lap average in the spring practice as well before leading 36 laps and finishing sixth after having to recover from a pit-road penalty.

Qualifying put Corey Day on the pole, giving him the first opportunity to control the race. His fifth-best 10-lap average also supports the starting position from a DFS perspective, so this is not simply a qualifying-speed play. With 201 laps available, we should still get enough dominator scoring for multiple drivers to matter.

Strategy

Las Vegas is a race where I want at least one driver with a legitimate path to leading a significant number of laps, but I am not going to force multiple expensive dominators into every lineup. There are 201 laps available, which is enough to make laps led and fastest laps important, but the spring race showed that those points can be split among several cars rather than concentrated with one driver. Especially with the speeds I see from practice, this could be a balance build week.

The 10-lap averages are the biggest practice metric I am using this week. Love, Creed, Jones, Crews and Day separated themselves at the top. I also want to look at how practice speed matches the starting lineup. A driver who qualified near the front and also showed top-five long-run speed has a realistic path to controlling the race. On the other hand, drivers who start farther back but showed strong 10-lap pace can give us both place differential and a realistic top-five or top-10 ceiling.

Las Vegas generally gives the faster cars enough room to work forward. The progressive banking allows drivers to move between lanes as the run develops, so I am more willing to chase place differential here than I would be at a track where passing is heavily dependent on restarts or pit strategy.

Green-flag pit cycles can also create major swings. A driver who gives up a couple seconds on pit road can lose several positions once the cycle completes, while short pitting and taking advantage of fresh tires can move someone forward quickly. That makes pit execution especially important for the potential dominators because losing clean track position can take away a large portion of their DFS ceiling.

For lineup construction, I want one primary dominator and then I am comfortable filling the rest of the lineup with drivers who have strong long-run speed, place differential or a realistic top-10 finishing path. I would rather pay for a driver starting deeper who can finish inside the top five than force a second front-row driver simply because they have an early opportunity to lead.

The biggest thing I am trying to avoid is overreacting to qualifying. We have actual practice data this week, and the longer averages give us a better indication of who should maintain race pace. Starting position still matters, but I want it supported by the 10-lap numbers whenever possible.

Potential Dominators

Jesse Love

Corey Day

Justin Allgaier

Sam Mayer

Love is my favorite overall dominator candidate because he had the best 10-lap average in practice at 175.451 mph. That is also consistent with what we saw here in the spring when he had the best 10-lap average, led 36 laps and was running at the front before a pit-road penalty forced him to come back through the field. At $11,000 he is expensive, but the long-run speed is good enough that I think he has legitimate race-winning and dominator upside tonight with some place differential starting in 10th. Day starts on the pole and had the fifth-best 10-lap average, which is exactly what I want to see from a potential early dominator. He also finished fourth here last fall after starting 19th and finished eighth in the spring after leading nine laps. At $8,700, the salary is very appealing for someone with immediate access to clean air and enough sustained speed to potentially hold the lead. The risk is obvious because he has nowhere to go forward, but he does not need to dominate the entire race at this price. Allgaier is going to be a tough play at a super high salary compared to others in the field and it is difficult to predict his speed from practice since he was one of the last to go out so his speeds look a lot slower than they are. He should be good on the long run and is always a contender but it is going to be difficult for him to pay off his salary when there were a lot of other fast drivers. Mayer had solid lap speeds in practice on the long run and could be a great option for the slate. I am not sure if he has dominating speed but there is a chance he is one of the better cars this weekend. He is at a much better salary than some of these other drivers so if you are going towards a balanced lineup he is a good option.

Top Place Differential Plays

Sammy Smith

William Sawalich

Ryan Sieg

Lee Pulliam

Sammy Smith wasn't a big stand out in practice but he is still a chase driver starting back in 23rd. He should move forward and be a solid mid range place differential option. I would expect top 10 upside for the race and should be a safe cash option for the race if you want to go more balanced with your lineup. Sawalich had some mechanical issues in practice and did not get to qualify which means he is starting way in the back for the race tonight. We don't exactly know what he has for the race but at a minimum he should run in the top 20 with a good chance to run in the top 10. That makes him an obvious choice for place differential points and should be a top owned driver for this slate. Sieg didn't make a long run in practice so that puts some question on his speed this weekend but he has a good history on 1.5 mile tracks as he runs close to the top 10 generally. He starts 20th so he has a good amount of room to move forward and should be a good place differential play for the race tonight.

Pulliam is in his first start in the 87 car and he had a solid lap going in qualifying until he got loose and lost a bunch of time on his lap. That means he starts farther back and his car should have more speed in it from his 26th starting spot. He should get better throughout the race as he gets more comfortable and he should have top 20 potential on speed.

Cheap Options

Jeremy Clements

Dean Thompson

Kyle Sieg

Jeremy Clements was one of the first cars on the track so that inflated his lap times a little bit in the practice session this weekend. But he had solid speed this season and is usually a guy running around the top 15. He starts 21st so he has some spots to move forward and is a safe option to have a good run if he doesn't have any issues. Thompson has ran top 20 and closer to the top 15 at all 1.5 mile tracks this season and he should be in for another good run today. He starts 22nd and should move forward and have the potential to be a top cheap play for the slate today. Kyle Sieg is a little riskier as he starts in 19th and may not be able to move forward much, but he has been running great as of late. He has had top 15 speed and if he repeats that type of speed he could be a good low owned option for the race.

Fades

Carson Kvapil

Kvapil has been one of the best drivers all season but he hasn't proven top speed on 1.5 mile tracks yet. There were a lot of other drivers that had better speed in practice and are lower salary that I think will have a better chance to get dominator points than Kvapil this week. I prefer those other options and don't hate the idea of fully fading Kvapil.

Tournament Plays

Brent Crews

Crews has had an up and down year but his best tracks have been 1.5 mile track when you look at his speed this season. He had good speed in practice and starts 4th so it would not be a shock to see him contend at the front and potentially get some dominator points. But it is still a risk as he hasn't done that too much this season or as of late. He will need some dominator points at his higher price as well.

Value Plays

Brandon Jones

Rajah Caruth

Jones is a fantastic value dominator this week as he seemed to have top 5 speed in practice and is under $8500 salary on Draftkings. He could be another driver who has a good run and contends at the front throughout the race. He is cheap enough that he can be paired with other top drivers and it allows you to go with a more balanced lineup. Another driver that is in the same boat is Caruth. He didn't have as much speed as Jones in practice but he was still good and is even cheaper. Last Vegas race he was in worst equipment but this week he is in a JR Motorsports car and could be in for a top 10 run with upside for more.

My Top Lineup Construction Plays

Jesse Love

Corey Day

William Sawalich

This is going to be my favorite core by far as you get the pole sitter who had great speed in practice in Day, the best car on lap averages in practice with Love, and a clear top place differential option that is almost guaranteed optimal if he doesn't have any issues. This is a top core and will be hard to beat for this race.