NASCAR Cup Series Mexico City DFS Picks
- RoundersKyle
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
The NASCAR Cup Series heads outside of the US for a points race for the first time in series history this weekend in Mexico City. We are about to head into the part of the schedule where it will be road course heavy starting here at Mexico City. We will have 100 laps on the 2.67 mile road course on Sunday and we could see some teams have brake or motor issues with the cars racing at a higher elevation than they are use to. Another thing to look for is drivers flipping the stages and pitting before stage ends to do their pit stops or others staying out to get stage points which will hurt them on their track position for the final stage.
Potential Dominators
Shane Van Gisbergen
Michael McDowell
I expect SVG to be the best car and dominate the large majority of the race this weekend. He is the best on road courses and we are at a new road course for everyone so his experience should give him an edge. Trackhouse in general has been really fast this weekend and he should be hard to beat from the pole in Mexico City. McDowell is one of the best road racers in the Series and he was really good in the practice sessions yesterday. He starts 5th and I expect him to be up front running in the top 5 all day.
Some other options that can run up front and potentially lead laps are Ross Chastain and AJ Allmendinger. If something happens to SVG, Chastain and Allmendinger could be options to lead as they have been good on road courses in the past and had good times in practice. They are also cheaper options than SVG, so if things get mixed up with strategies and we don’t get one single driver to lead a lot of laps.
Place Differential Plays
William Byron
Christopher Bell
Chris Buescher
Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman
Carson Hocevar
The place differential plays are going to be important this week, especially if SVG does dominate as I expect. Picking the right drivers that are going to finish towards the front is going to be key for DFS. Byron and Bell are two drivers that are generally good on road courses, but they qualified back in the 20s this week. Byron struggled a little bit in practice but Bell was top 5 in 5 lap averages in practice. Both are solid options to move forward and be good plays this weekend. Buescher has become one of the top Cup Series regulars on road courses in recent years and he has looked good this weekend. He starts in 16th but I expect him to move forward and run in the top 10 with upside to get up front and contend by the end of the day. Briscoe was another that had good lap times in practice even though he hasn’t had the best results in the Cup series at road courses. But he was a good road racer in the Xfinity Series and he could be a good place differential play starting in 19th. Bowman and Hocevar are solid place differential options starting in the 20s that have had good results on road courses in the past.
Cheap Options
Brad Keselowski
Noah Gragson
Zane Smith
Riley Herbst
Keselowski is not the best road racer but you don’t necessarily need to be starting in 30th. If he can keep his car clean and on track he should be able to move forward and have a solid run. Both his teammates were really fast in practice and he should be a good place differential play. Gragson crashed early in practice so he didn’t get many laps and starts in the back. I would expect him to get better in the race and should be a good place differential option. Zane Smith starts a little closer to the front in 24th but I really like him this week as he has been good on road courses in his career. His teammate Gilliland starts in 7th so he should have the car to move forward and have top 15 potential for the race. Herbst is a big risk tournament play this week starting up in 15th. Usually you wouldn’t think of using him starting that far up but he has gotten a lot better as a road racer and had top 10 speed in practice. He’s a huge risk but I don’t mind him as a really low owned option in large tournaments, especially if we have the few cheap place differential option get in trouble.
Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek are solid flier plays that can open up salary in your lineups.
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