NASCAR Cup Series Dover DFS Picks
- RoundersKyle
- Jul 19
- 4 min read
We get a break from the road courses this week as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the northeast to Dover, Delaware. Dover is a 1 mile concrete track that NASCAR goes to once a season. Hopefully we get some good racing this week but that will likely depend how the tire falloff is this week and if the drivers can pass throughout the field. Practice and qualifying got rained out so we don't have much to go off of this week besides other concrete tracks and last years race which may make things difficult to know who is going to be the best cars this week.
Potential Dominators
William Byron
Denny Hamlin
Byron has been fast a lot this season and he has had good runs at the other tracks and races that I am looking at when trying to determine who is going to be fast this week. He led 36 laps last season at Dover and had the 3rd best average running position at the concrete track in Nashville this season. He starts 5th so if he has a good car, which I expect him to, he should have a chance to get to the lead early and be a dominator option this week. Hamlin is another that should be one of the top guys to beat this week. He won this race last season and he has finished 2nd and 3rd at the two other concrete tracks we have raced at this season. He starts 13th but I would expect him to make his way to the front and he a top option at Dover.
Those are the two drivers I feel good about being contenders this week, but I also don't mind Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, or Chase Briscoe who all start in the top 4 on Sunday. I would not be surprised to see any of them get the lead early and end up leading enough with a top 5 finish to be optimal at the end of the day. Unfortunately, without practice it is difficult to predict who might do that from this group. If I was to pick my order of who I like I would likely go: Bell-Briscoe-Reddick-Elliott.
Place Differential Plays
Kyle Larson
Ryan Blaney
Carson Hocevar
Alex Bowman
You are never going to count out Larson going into a week without practice as he is arguably the best driver on the best team and you would assume they are going to be able to unload as one of the better cars any given week. He dominated at Bristol earlier this season which is a comparable track to Dover and he starts back in 25th giving him a huge amount of place differential upside. Blaney should be one of the favorites this weekend when looking at the data coming into this weekend. He racked up a ton of fast laps the last two races at Dover finishing 3rd here last season. He also won at Nashville earlier this season and finished 5th at Bristol, which are the two other concrete tracks they have raced at this year. He starts way back in 31st making him a great place differential play and should be a popular play this weekend. Hocevar is another good place differential option this week starting back in 33rd. He has had top 10 speed on the other concrete tracks this season and I would expect him to move forward and be a great value this week if he stays out of trouble. Bowman isn't an obvious choice but he has good runs at Dover in recent years and has ran well at the concrete tracks this season. He starts 16th so he has some room to move forward as I think he will have top 10 potential with upside for more.
Cheap Options
Erik Jones
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Noah Gragson
Zane Smith
AJ Allmendinger
Jones and Stenhouse have some solid runs at recent Dover races and concrete tracks. Jones did miss this race last season but finished 7th at Nashville this season and finished 16th at Dover in 2023. Jones starts 27th and he should have top 20 potential for the race. Stenhouse has had top 15 average running positions the last two Dover racing and has huge place differential upside starting in 34th. Gragson finished 6th here last season even though that was with the now defunct SHR. I am not sure he has that kind of upside this week but he starts in 36th and should at least be able to get in the top 25 and be a god option this week. His teammate Zane Smith I believe is a solid choice as well starting in 30th as he had a good run in Nashville and should move forward in the race this week. AJ Allmendinger is a good risky tournament play this week starting in 17th. He is likely to be low owned starting that high up but I think he has real potential to run top 15 and could end up winning you a tournament if he can get into the top 10.
Make sure to follow us on X and Instagram:
