UFC 299 - PrizePicks 2-Pick

Sean O’Malley OVER 117.5 Significant Strikes

This is an anticipated striker vs. striker matchup with potential to be FOTN. Though O’Malley has only topped 126 SS in 2 fights, his volume paired with Chito’s durability makes this an interesting prop to study.

In previous fights, O’Malley has found the finish early; however, he hasn’t been tested by a fighter with Chito’s durability. Looking at Chito, he gets hit a lot but does a good job of limiting visible damage and eventually finding the finish.

The preferred play is O’Malley OVER 117.5 SS. When this prop opened, it was initially lined at 125.5 SS; however, many fans are speculating that this fight will end ITD even though this fight is anticipated to go all 5 rounds according to Vegas odds.

Being said, O’Malley lands 7.25 SS/Min while Vera absorbs 5.16 SS/Min. Both fighters rarely wrestle and Vera has proven his durability. Even if this fight goes 4 rounds, 117.5 SS is a doable number given Chito’s defense. The unknown in this fight is O’Malley’s durability. We’ve seen him injure his leg is 2 fights, and he’s also never been tested by a finisher like Vera. Even after considering this, injuries are part of the variance of betting MMA. Barring an early finish, I expect O’Malley to smash 117.5 SS.

Jack Della Maddalena OVER 82.5 FS

JDM has good boxing, shown 3-round cardio in his last two fights, good TDD, and a decent submission game. He will be facing his toughest test to date against Gilbert Burns.

In my opinion, this is a great matchup for JDM to showcase his skills. Burns has looked good against aging fighters like Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal, but struggled against younger, more athletic fighters.

The preferred prop is JDM OVER 82.5 FS as this is a great matchup for him to rack up points. Personally, I think JDM KOs Gilbert Burns which will naturally make him an 82.5+ FS fighter. But even if he doesn’t, he has the skills to top 82.5 FS in a DEC.

As mentioned earlier, he is a good boxer with high output; has good TDD fighting someone who is willing to wrestle when put in precarious positions; and he has KO power against a fighter who has been dropped several times by jabs. To add, JDM is a -140 betting favorite. At 82.5 FS, JDM has multiple paths to achieve this score making this my favorite play of the week.